Observations from the Guru: Week 3
By Scott Lange
Week three is in the books folks, and the Guru has some observations and thoughts about AFL players, gambling, and the "Evil" Guru. In this article, I hope to give people a glance at what the weekend of the AFO's own Arena Guru was like for week three.
As the saying goes, the more things seem to change, the more things seem to stay the same. That seems to be the case this year in New York and Philadelphia, who at the beginning of the year looked like strong teams on paper. Each team had hoped their QB would stay healthy and carry their team to the promised land. Was this too easy to predict though? Dallas is the best team in their division... again! New York's QB Aaron Garcia is hurt...again! New York's defense is awful...again! And Philadelphia's Tony Graziani is on the shelf...again! Does this remind anyone of the 2007 season? It was about this time last year this exact scenario was in place. Hopefully 2008 will be different, but it's hard not to notice the similarity between the 2007 and 2008 seasons.
Graziani especially was off to a great start this year and had the Soul 3-0 through the first three weeks. I said this at the beginning of the season. The best acquisition for the Soul in the off season was NOT WR Chris Jackson. It was back up QB Matt D'Orazio, who led the Rush to a 12-4 record last year as a starter. You now see why this was such a key acquisition for the Soul. I think D'Orazio can carry this offense without Graziani. You could not say that about the Soul's back up QB last year, could you? What was his name? Meanwhile, Garcia was hurt in the first game of the year and tried to play in week three but didn't make it. Rohan Davey has looked good in relief, but the problem with the Dragons is not their back up QB. It's their defense that keeps them from winning games. It's hard to win games when your defense gives up 60+ points on a weekly basis.
Three weeks ago if I would have asked you who the best team in the Southern Division was, most of the experts, including me, would have said the Tampa Bay Storm. However, after what I've seen from New Orleans QB Danny Wimprine, the VooDoo is suddenly looking like the team to beat. Wimprine looks like the real deal and has bonded very well with WRs James Jordan and Javarus Dudley. If their defense can improve, and play like they did in week three, the VooDoo could be playing some post season football. Another team that has really impressed me from a fantasy perspective has been the Blaze offense. Joe Germaine is tied for the league lead with 20 TDs. I was not a big fan of the Blaze offense after losing Siaha Burley, but they have found a star in WR Huey Whittaker. And now with the emerging J.J. McKelvey and Aaron Boone, this offense has been on a tear, scoring the second most points so far in the AFL through two weeks. The down side to this team though is their defense. With as much offense as this team has been dishing out, amazingly they are giving up more points which are the key reason they are sitting 0-3. However, if you've got Germaine, Whittaker, McKelvey, or Boone on you fantasy squad, I highly doubt your team is 0-3.
Now it's time everybody's favorite part of this weekly feature where I get to verbally assault someone or something that I feel needs to be discussed. Last week I had a chance to rip ESPN for its half time show where some goofball kept referring to the Cleveland Gladiators as the Cleveland Wranglers. This week I'd like to discuss certain players that have owners fuming after their week three performances. Let's start in San Jose, where QB Mark Grieb and WR James Roe were pathetic in week three against a bad Arizona Rattler secondary. Somebody should check the pulse of Mark Grieb because this offense is stuck in neutral which shocks me. He's got plenty of weapons to throw to and has no excuse to only throw three TDs in one game. And since when did the Rattlers get a defender that can match up with WR James Roe? Roe versus a Rattler defender should scream mismatch, but apparently Grieb thought otherwise. Roe ended up with a big fat ZERO in the TD column. You would think that with Rodney Wright out, Roe would get the majority of the passes thrown his way. Let's see what happens against the 'Rados in week four before pull the plug on Roe.
Speaking of the 'Rados, where the hell was Marcus Nash this week? He looked to be the favorite target for Chris Sanders last week when he caught eight passes for 112 yards and three TDs. This week, Nash seemed virtually invisible on the field as Sanders zoned in on WR Will Pettis. It also does not help that Sanders is a hog and rushed for two more TDs on the ground. Nash is still too good to be benched and I see him rebounding big next week against the Sabercats.
And last but certainly not least, let's talk about last year's MVP Siaha Burley. Burley pulled yet another Houdini act and disappeared in week 3. If anybody saw the game in week 2 on ESPN last Monday night, you can understand why he missed the game. Now listen up, it is now time to try and ship this guy elsewhere. You heard it here first. I hate the situation he's in right now. He's hurt and in a bad situation in Arizona. Lang Campbell is out and Jeff Smoker looks like garbage. I just see this being a long season for the Rattlers and Burley. Right now you may be able to trade for a player, maybe someone like Orlando's T.T. Toliver or Columbus' Derek Lee, simply because of his name and his production in the past. If you wait longer his value may drop as the weeks go by. Even if Burley does come back and play like I think he will, I just don't see him being a productive top three pick.
Now, I had yet another productive week with my gambling picks as I went 5-3 ATS. The problem with this is the "Evil" Guru posted the same record. So, I remain one game ahead of ArenaFan's so called Guru. I'm feeling no pressure though, since I have led since day one. Week four will be here soon enough, and I plan on distancing myself a bit.
Good luck to everybody in week four!
Scott Lange is a founding member of Arena Football Online and has been following Arena Football since 2000. Contact Scott at slange@arenafootballonline.com
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