I've been trying to come up with a witty way to say this, but just spitting it out seems to be the best way: Brett Dietz is going to be a Top 3 fantasy quarterback this season.
Dietz came on in Week 9 and saved the season for the Tampa Bay Storm, throwing for 47 TDs against only 8 interceptions. Take out his 3 TD, 4 INT game against Georgia and Dietz's stats look even more formidable. He's young, he's driven, he's confident, he's a hard worker and he's the unquestioned starter. Project his stats over a full year and Dietz would have accounted for 90 TDs through the air.
Going 8-1 with the Storm only whetted Brett's appetite for success, something he's had at every stage of his career. Losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Columbus Destroyers in the first round of the playoffs only made Dietz work harder in the off-season.
With the exception of Clint Dolezel and Mark Grieb, every quarterback in the league has questions attached to his 2008 performance. Does Sherdrick Bonner have one more year left? Can Lang Campbell be a full-time starter? What will Chris Griesen do without Derek Lee and Chris Jackson? Can Aaron Garcia and Tony Graziani stay healthy? Can Steve Bellisari and Sonny Cumbie be consistent point producers? Will Shane Stafford return to form or be constricted by the Orlando offense? Can John Dutton survive without Damian Harrell? What about Joe Germaine without Siaha Burley? And can John Fitzgerald return from a year off and take advantage of the receivers he's got around him?
Well, none of those questions apply to Dietz, who has the full support of his coaching staff and the luxury of knowing his receivers, as the Storm return veterans Terrill Shaw and Lawrence Samuels, in addition to youngster Hank Edwards.
Anyone who owned Dietz down the stretch in 2007 surely has an eye on the young QB, but the best thing about him is that most owners may not rank him highly, meaning you can get a great bargain on the only man in professional football to ever throw for 12 TDs in a game. If he lasts into the 2nd round of your draft, take a deep breath and shout out his name... quickly.
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We all really like Brett Dietz; he was a deserving co-rookie of the year in 2007 and an all-around great guy. But cool your jets before blowing an early draft pick on him. Tampa Bay's second half surge coincided with not only Brett taking over at QB but also the arrival (and by "arrival" I mean "explosion") of Torrance Marshall at fullback, who matched Dan Alexander over the second half of last year (which is equivalent to some joker saying "I can do that" and trailing after Jesus across the lake). Dietz's best games coincided one-to-one with the Storm's running game hitting full swing. Sure, Brett contributed too, steadying a very rocky ship and putting up some fine numbers, but opponents have had a long break to watch tape and focus in on the young man's weaknesses.
There are 3 basic tiers of fantasy QBs:
those who are worth a 1st round draft pick because they are gads above the rest,
the rest who all score well but there's no point drafting them early because this is a large group and taking the last of these is likely to be as beneficial as taking the first,
the "man-I-wish-I'd-grabbed-a-QB- before-I-got-stuck-with-this-idiot" tier.
Now I'm certainly not saying that Brett is anywhere near the 3rd of these tiers, indeed I'll concede he's near (or at) the top of the middle tier…but that's my point! His superb achievements of last year do not him, a 1st round draft-pick, make. And if a QB is not a 1st round choice, then he's a 5th round choice.
He does benefit from a fairly stable receiving group in Terrill Shaw and Lawrence Samuels who have a wealth of experience, but he'll sorely miss TT Toliver who was on the business end of almost a quarter of Brett's career completions, despite only playing together in a handful of games.
He arguably gets a boost from playing in the southern conferences which may be one of the weaker groups in 2008; but weaker does not necessarily mean high-scoring.
Overall I rate Brett as one of the top 5 or 6 QBs in the league, and he'd be an asset to any fantasy line-up, but not if you have to pass up a TT Toliver, a Mike Horacek, or a Lawrence Samuels to get him.
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