Winning fantasy football is all about matchups. Player for player you must outscore your opponent, hoping that one of your guys will give you a decided edge at a key position. If you can get one man on your roster to blow away the opposition, simply blow them right away, well, in that case, you might win a few more than you lose.
In the world of blowing things away, Dan Alexander is King. And not only is it good to be the King, but it's good to own the King.
The purest runner that Arena Football has ever witnessed, Alexander used speed, elusiveness, bull strength and sheer will to run for 429 yards and 41 TDs in 2007. Alexander didn't just break the record, he shattered it, besting Bernard Hall's 1996 effort by 15 TDs. To put that in perspective, if a receiver were to break Damian Harrell's mark of 61 TDs as badly as Alexander broke the rushing record, that receiver would post a gaudy 96 TDs. That's only four away from an even hundred. (And he even had a TD receiving, but why even mention it?)
That's how good Dan Alexander is.
Big Dan carried an amazing 167 times (another record) in 2007, proving he can be the focal point of an offense. Even though the opponents knew it was coming, Alexander was a force, winning games single-handedly for his fantasy owners. He had two games with 6 TDs. One game with 5 TDs. Four games with 3 TDs. Eleven games in all with multiple scores. Those are WR1 numbers and yet they're coming from a fullback.
Okay, I hear what you're saying now. You're telling me that Alexander plays in a better offense in Chicago, one that relies mainly on the pass, one that features the best receiver in the AFL, one that doesn't really use the run that much. Oh he does, does he? History shows us that the last player to take a run at Hall's record before Alexander was Bob McMillen. And just what team did Bob McMillen play for, you ask?
Why, the Chicago Rush, of course.
The Rush didn't bring in Alexander to block, they brought him in to run. This Windy City squad is lining up for another shot at an ArenaBowl crown and they're going to use their talent to the fullest. And that includes using Alexander where he's best - bursting through the line for scores. Alexander will outscore most WR3s, which is exactly what you'd be getting when your turn to select comes up in R3 of the draft.
So it's up to you. You can take just another receiver. Or you can take the difference in your championship season. Totally your choice.
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Some are dazzled by beauty. And a sparkling diamond can cause you to
not see the problems in the person giving it. Take for instance the
case of Dan Alexander. Sure, Alexander led all AFL fullbacks in 2007 and
provided fantasy owners truly stunning and beautiful 41 rushes into the
endzone last year. Should you spend a second or third round pick to
grab Alexander?
Don't let those gaudy numbers bedazzle you. Simply put,
Alexander's record 41 rushing TDs last year was a complete fluke. It is
unlikely he will get more than 20 this year. Here's why.
First, a little history. Alexander had only 8 touchdowns in the
previous season in 2006, and only 5 touchdowns in 2005. So with 2007 being
five times his best previous season total, it is easy to see that
Alexander's numbers are not typical of his overall performance. So how do
we explain what happened in 2007?
It appears Alexander was the beneficiary of the Nashville Kats 2007
misery. The Kats started the season with QB Clint Stoerner. When
Stoerner failed, they tried Jeff Smoker, who did not fail as badly but did
not really shine. The Kats missed the playoffs and disbanded at the end
of the season. But the turmoil at the QB position caused the Kats to
rely on Alexander for their scoring, which he did at record setting
levels. In addition, the change in the substitution rule in 2007 allowed
teams to put in the "jumbo package" when they were near the goal line,
which opened up lanes for rushers like Alexander.
So this year, things are different for Dan Alexander. He is with the
Chicago Rush, who also grabbed the very solid veteran QB Sherdrick
Bonner. In addition, the Rush picked up one of the best wide receivers in
AFL history, Damian Harrell. So while Alexander will still get his
rushes, he will not be the only weapon this year. And I suspect that teams
have learned from last year and will make the adjustments needed to correct
the holes caused by the change in the substitution rules.
So to sum it all up, 2008 will be a very different, and mediocre, year
for Dan Alexander.
Alexander is a great fullback. But he will not come anywhere near
last year's completely crazy numbers. Alexander will be just one bright
star amid the constellation of greats that Chicago is assembling in
their quest for another run at the ArenaBowl. When drafting, take
Alexander where you would normally take a fullback, in the late 6th or 7th
rounds, as your number 1 fullback. He will do fine, but nothing stellar.
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