Mock Drafts: The Lie that Reveals Truth
Analysis by Paul Celmer
What round should I take Chris Jackson in?
Is the fullback Dan Alexander worth a 3rd round pick?
When should I take my first kicker or defensive specialist?
When should I grab a backup quarterback?
Questions like these plague every manager of a fantasy Arena football team on draft day. But there is something you can do to avoid the blank stares and snickers that might greet you if you blurt out the name of a defensive specialist in round 3. A mock draft is a technique you can use to practice your drafting strategy, gain insights into drafting trends, and to determine in what rounds any given player will likely be drafted.
This article analyzes ArenaFootballOnline's annual quick and dirty 10-team, 10-round mock draft.
The fantasy lineup for our mock league looks like this:
1 QB (Quarterback)
1 OS (Offensive Specialist)
2 WRs (can be WR/DB or WR/LB)
1 FB/LB (Fullback/Linebacker)
1 K (Kicker)
2 DS (Defensive Specialists)
And here are the essentials of the scoring system:
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Category
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Fantasy Points
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Every 20 yards Passing
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1
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Touchdown Pass
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3
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Interception Thrown
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-2
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Every 3 yards Rushing
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1
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Rushing Touchdown
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6
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Every 10 yards Receiving
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1
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Touchdown Catch
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5
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Reception
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1
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Every 20 return yards
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1
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PAT (kicking)
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1
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FG (< 30 yards)
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3
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FG (=> 50 yards)
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6
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INT return for TD
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6
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Fumble Recovery return for TD
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6
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Kick Return for TD (missed FG, kick off)>
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6
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INT (Defensive)
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6
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Fumble Recovery (Defensive)
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3
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Sack
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3
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Tackle
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2
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Assist
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1
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Important: you should always carefully study your leagues scoring system before the draft to get every possible advantage over your opponents.
One reason it is essential to study the scoring system is because of this one simple truth often overlooked by those caught up in the emotion of the game: the best player in the Arena is not always the best producer of fantasy points. Don't just assume that all TDs thrown by a QB will give you 6 points. There are always little quirks in every fantasy league. And as you can see in the system for this mock draft, there are a number of twists that might surprise rookie team managers. Most notably, QBs only get 3 points for passing TDs. Another odd thing is that TD receptions only get 5 points, not 6. And there are a number of ways for defensive players to score, in keeping with the ìironmanî mentality of the pre-substitution rule league. All of these unexpected scoring rules are designed to give equal weight to offensive and defensive players, which again is something that must be kept in mind during the draft.
Here is the result of the draft:
Round-by-Round Analysis
Round 1
Chris Jackson went in the first round of last year's mock draft. So this pick is not that surprising. Team 7's pick of Frederick, like several other picks by this same owner, is reaching a bit. There is always one oddball owner in every draft. In any case, there are other more tried and true wide receivers on the board. Burley is a good pick here. Harrell I wonder about, given his injury situation last year and the new QB this year.
Round 2
Griesen is another solid pick for Team 2, especially since Grieb and Dolezel are already gone. Dolezel and Grieb are more dependable, but Griesen obviously has the potential to score more. Bellisari is a crazy pick at this point. He will do well, but should have gone in round 4 or 5. QB Lang Campbell is even crazier. Except for the top one or two QBs, you normally would draft your quarterback in round 3 at the earliest--generally after you have picked up the best wide receivers available. Nash is great value here--as long as he stays healthy.
Round 3
A fullback in round 3? Well, Dan Alexander is the only one that you could even dream of considering here. He was in a whole other league by himself when compared to the rest of the fullbacks. So the pick is not quite as crazy as it seems. However, Alexander is on a new team and new system this year, so I don't see him coming close to last year's fluke numbers. Samuels did not have a spectacular year last year, but he should do OK.
Round 4
Brett Dietz is a great value here, lots of upside. In every draft there is an owner that tries to break the mold, and Team 7's pick is another attempt to break out of the rut of the expected. Team 7's rookie DB Chris Royal is a bit of a risk here, but there is lots of upside. Normally defensive players would not be picked until rounds 5 or 6. But most leagues start two of them, so you have to pay attention to both sides of the ball. Aaron Garcia seems a decent pick here, given reports that he looks good in training camp. However, Team 9 certainly needed to pick up a solid back-up QB. Matt Nagy in Round 12 was an excellent value pick. Will Aaron Boone be healthy after last year's disappointing series of leg/ankle injuries?
Round 5
Team 10's Charles Pauley, now with the Columbus Destroyers, is an interesting pick here. He had a break-out season for a good bit of last season with Philly with 27 TDs, but inexpicably disappeared near the end. But round seven is a good time to take some risks. Team 2 started a little run on fullbacks with Columbus's Harold Wells, then Josh White, and Chris Ryan. Like a Dot-com stock in the late 90s, these kinds of runs always happen in any draft. But beware of getting caught up in these runs. Always look for the best value. But in this case, there really are not many great fullbacks after Dan Alexander, so these owners did well in filling this required roster spot now.
Round 6
Round 6 is the second half of a run on defensive specialists. Clevan Thomas is a good pick in this round, as is Jeremy Unertl.
Round 7
Hard to believe Bonner has fallen all the way to the seventh round, but this seems about the right spot to get him. Team 2's DB Khalil Carter is an interesting pick. Carter spent the last year in the af2 as a coach; it will be interesting to see if that has given him any special insight into picking off passes. His speed should still be there.
Round 8
The Kicker run starts. Haglund is one of the best. Team 7 again has a curious pick with L.A.'s new kicker, David Davis, the rookie coming up from the af2. But Davis was the kicker of the year in the af2 and is a good bet here.
Round 9
Stafford is great value here in round 9. Last year he went in the first round and was pretty much a bust. But he should rebound this year as he has a whole year under the new coach and offensive system. Adrian McPherson is a bit of a stretch, especially since it is not clear that he has the starting job locked up.
Round 10
As mentioned earlier, Team 9's pick of Matt Nagy is excellent value here, as is Raymond Philyaw. Traco Rachal is speculative, even in round 10. Team 7's Wes Ours is also a bit risky, since it is not clear if Ours will be the No. 1 fullback. Team 2's pick of Ryan Dennard is a good gamble, as Dennard should benefit from the new situation in Chicago and Bonner's attempt to extend his legendary career one more year.
Summary:
Naturally, a real draft would most likely go 12 or even 14 rounds. But this mock draft should give you an idea of how to develop a winning strategy.
Team's 1, 3, and 8 decided not to draft a backup quarterback. This is a risky strategy, especially in a 10 team league. There just are not that many really good quarterbacks out there. But there usually are at least two quarterbacks that emerge from nowhere early in the season. However, teams without a backup will have to watch the waiver wire like hawks or could be caught in an unpleasant situation should their number 1 QB get injured.
Teams 4 and 5 seem balanced and appear to have come out of the draft the best of the ten. I do have some reservations about Team 4's pick of Dietz as his number 1 QB since he has not played a complete season yet in the AFL; however, he has tremendous upside. But in general, Team 4 shows a patient draft strategy, waiting for the maximum value pick in each round.
Paul Celmer is a member of the Arena Football League Writers Association and has been participating in arena fantasy leagues since 1999. Contact Paul at pcelmer@arenafootballonline.com
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