From the Gut: The Quarterbacks
By Scott Lange
In this article, I present to you the thoughts rolling around my head about the 2008 AFL season. Without further delay let's get right down to my gut feelings about some of the quarterbacks for the upcoming season.
Sherdrick Bonner QB Chicago
My gut tells me Bonner will be in for a career year. He's got more than enough talent around him to throw 95+ TDs. Bonner will have the luxury of throwing the ball to the best WR in the AFL, Damien Harrell. Bonner also has other talented options on offense, such as RB Dan Alexander and WRs Travis LaTendresse and Rob Mager. The offense for Chicago is going to be explosive this year, and Bonner will be a top 5 QB at the end of the season.
Chris Greisen QB Georgia
Greisen took the AFL by surprise last year, passing for an AFL record 117 TDs. Greisen had stars like Chris Jackson, Troy Bergeron, and Derek Lee to toss the rock to, and Greisen lit up opponents on a weekly basis. This year is different though, as C-Jax and Lee have left via free agency. Troy Bergeron is the only player left from last year's record setting trio. My gut tells me Greisen will struggle this year without Jackson and Lee. Defenses had no clue how to stop the Force attack last year because there were simply too many weapons. That will not be the case this year.
Sonny Cumbie QB Los Angeles
This is one of the guys I'm very high on this year. Cumbie should be able to have a career year with the weapons he has on offense. Cumbie has WRs Kevin Ingram, Lenzie Jackson, and now Timon Marshall, to form a potent passing attack. Defenses are going to struggle trying to stop this team in 2008. This team reminds me a lot of the Georgia offense last year, and my gut tells me that Cumbie has a chance to throw 100+ TDs this season. Draft accordingly.
Clint Dolezel QB Dallas
In 2007, Dolezel made it two straight years with 100+ TDs. He's the best AFL QB in my opinion and should be the first QB off the board in fantasy drafts. The scary part for Dolezel is that he passed for 107 TDs last year without star receiver Marcus Nash. With Dolezel having weapons like Nash, Will Pettis, and Andrae Thurman, my gut tells me you can expect another 100+ TDs from the Dallas QB.
Brett Dietz QB Tampa Bay
My gut tells me that Dietz is the real deal folks. Look at his numbers last year and it is hard to ignore the kind of production he is capable of for 2008. Dietz passed for 2209 yards and 45 TDs the last nine weeks of the season, and only threw seven picks. Through a normal 17 week schedule those numbers would give him roughly 85 TDs and around 4000+ yards. Not bad for his first year. Another year with the same offense and Dietz could be headed for a terrific season. Dietz has weapons around him in the form of receivers Terrill Shaw, Lawrence Samuels, and Hank Edwards. Look for Dietz to continue his success and approach 4000+ yards and 85+ TDs.
Shane Stafford QB Orlando
Stafford's numbers surprisingly took a bit of a hit last year with his new team. It was mainly due to the Preds commitment to running the ball with Marlon Moye-Moore, who crossed paydirt 14 times. Stafford has some nice talent around him, which includes receivers Javarus Dudley, Ron Johnson, Jimmy Fryzel, and T.T. Toliver. Stafford has the talent to throw for 85+ TDs, but my gut tells me he won't do that in Orlando. The Preds are a more defensive-minded team and prefer to keep the ball on the ground. I see Stafford throwing for 75-80 TDs, but he could add some more value by adding some rushing TDs, which he is very capable of doing.
Tony Graziani QB Philadelphia
The biggest concern for Graziani this year has to be his health. Graziani has not played a full season in the last two years, and he is now approaching his fourth year in Philadelphia. Graziani has a solid group of WRs to throw to, including newly acquired Chris Jackson, Kenny Henderson, and Larry Brackens. Jackson is an immediate upgrade for the Soul, who struggled with keeping receivers healthy last year. I have no doubt that Graz can put up Top 10 numbers with this group of receivers -- if he can stay healthy. However, my gut says Graziani will not play the entire 17 games this year. If you do draft Graziani, be sure to pick up his backup, Matt D'Orazio.
Aaron Garcia QB New York
Garcia will be a tough player to project this year. He's been banged up the past two seasons, and has also now lost veteran WR Mike Horacek via free agency. The Dragons were able to pick up receivers Damien Groce and Jeremiah Pope over the off-season, and receiver Kevin Swayne is still there, as well. Garcia reported to us at the ArenaBowl that he's healthy and ready to go, and my gut says Garcia he'll stay healthy and play like the Top 10 QB that he has been for years. He's a definite high-risk, high-reward player to draft. If you draft Garcia, make sure you've got a decent back up in case he does miss time.
Lang Campbell QB Arizona
Could Campbell be this year's version of Joe Germaine? Last year, Germaine passed for 107 TDs, with star receiver Siaha Burley accounting for 49 of them by himself. Campbell is now the QB that gets to throw the rock to last year's MVP. Plus, Campbell is going to have other weapons around him in the form of receivers of Trandon Harvey and Atnaf Harris. Campbell can also get some TDs on the ground rushing, which only adds to his value. If you're looking for a sleeper at QB this year, Campbell could be the guy to look at during the draft. My gut tells me Campbell is going to be in for a solid year with the Rattlers.
Joe Germaine QB Utah
As stated above, Germaine lost the main guy responsible for his 107 TDs last year. Losing Burley is a huge blow, and his numbers will suffer this year without last year's league MVP. Germaine does have receivers Aaron Boone, J.J. McKelvey, and Tom Pace, who are decent options, but my gut says the Utah offense will struggle this year without Burley.
Steve Bellisari QB New Orleans
Bellisari stepped in for the injured Andy Kelly last year in week 14 and sparked the VooDoo offense. Bellisari started the last four games for the VooDoo and threw 26 TD passes. One game involved a shootout with Dallas QB Clint Dolezel where Bellisari threw nine TDs. My gut tells me Bellisari could approach 100 TDs this year. If he and his receivers can stay healthy, 100 TDs is very possible.
Raymond Philyaw QB Cleveland
Philyaw did a terrific job last year with the expansion Brigade, passing for 85 TDs through the air. Philyaw will join another expansion team this year in the Cleveland Gladiators. Philyaw has some decent talent around him, but my gut says he will struggle to meet last year's totals in 2008. Philyaw has receivers Kevin Prentiss, Cornelius Bonner, and Otis Amey to throw the ball to and those guys are average at best. Philyaw would be a good backup QB for a bye-week fill in.
John Dutton QB Colorado
Dutton's numbers took a bit of a hit last year, throwing for less TDs and more INTs than his 2006 year. Dutton also lost a very valuable receiver in Damien Harrell during the off-season. However, the Crush replaced Harrell with a rising star in receiver Ben Nelson. Nelson played for the AFL champion San Jose Sabercats last year and was acquired via free agency. However, I just don't see Dutton's numbers getting better this year. My gut tells me the loss of Harrell will affect his numbers more than people realize. Dutton may be good for 80 TDs on the season, but don't expect much more.
Matt Nagy QB Columbus
Nagy found out last year what happens when you lose quality receivers like Chris Jackson, Derek Lee, and Troy Bergeron. Your numbers take a hit. Last year in his first season as the Columbus QB, Nagy may have led his team to the Arena Bowl, but fantasy-wise, his stats dropped. The Destroyers though were able to snag Derek Lee and Charles Pauley via free agency during the off-season. This will be an immediate upgrade at the receiver position for the Destroyers. With the group of receivers Nagy has, he could match last year's totals which would be a solid season. My gut feeling is that we see a more consistent Matt Nagy for the 2008 season.
Adrian McPherson QB Grand Rapids
McPherson qualifies this year as a Boom or Bust candidate. If he can snag the starting QB position, he could provide fantasy teams with some serious points, especially with his legs. McPherson's running ability is what separates him from other QBs in the AFL. McPherson is a player to roll the dice on once you have a solid QB, since he's not guaranteed the starting gig. My gut tells me that McPherson may disappoint owners this year, but he is definitely worth at least a roster spot.
Scott Lange is a founding member of Arena Football Online and has been following Arena Football since 2000. Contact Scott at slange@arenafootballonline.com
|
