Arena Fantasy Draft Strategy
by Richard Giorgi
Last year we featured an article on draft strategy for those of you involved in Arena Football fantasy leagues. Apparently that article was good, good enough in fact for it to be shared among all the owners in my league. Two of the owners used that strategy to such perfection that they actually bumped me from the playoffs.
That's not neighborly at all.
But in spite of that success (although that depends on your definition), some updating is necessary. Rule changes made offensive records as fragile as ceramic plates last season and the emergence of the fullback position dictates that we reconsider their importance to a fantasy team. Or does it?
Last year we told you to de-value the QB position, ignore the RB position, put Offensive Specialists and WRs on a pedestal, get yourself two of the best Defensive Specialists in the league and take a Kicker from a good team late in the draft and stick with him all year long. When I read that, I don't think much has changed.
In 2007, bargains existed at quarterback: Joe Germaine wasn't taken until R5. Chris Greisen wasn't taken until R11 (if at all). Owners spent high round draft picks on John Dutton, Shane Stafford, Matt Nagy and Matt D'Orazio, only to wish they had waited. Only Clint Dolezel and Mark Grieb paid dividends for quarterbacks drafted in the first four rounds, so once again the advice is to wait. Even Dolezel, who was picked in the 4th overall slot, came at the expense of not being able to pick Bobby Sippio.
So let those quarterbacks wait while you select your fill of wide receivers. But if you're sitting at the 10 spot and Dolezel is staring you in the face, well, then you have a decision to make. I still think you're better off with Charles Frederick and Will Pettis, but it's tough to pass on a quarterback of Dolezel's stature.
Something else we stressed to you last year is an absolute truth, and I would never think of rebuking it: wide receivers are to Arena Football what blue-chip RBs are to the outdoor game. Without a good one, or two, it's a long season.
So in the 1st round, grab yourself a WR. In the 2nd round, grab yourself a WR. Repeat in the 3rd round. Once you've secured your team approximately 80 TDs from your receivers, you'll be in a much better position to succeed.
If during the course of those 1st three rounds you end up as the only team without a QB on your roster, you've already won. You've been given a free pass not to pick a QB until Round 5 or Round 6 (or maybe even later). That means while the other teams around you are filling in their 3rd WR slots or selecting FBs (way too early for that, even with Dan Alexander's success in 2007), you're selecting backups that are the same caliber as their starters.
In winning fantasy leagues, alot has to do with how you matchup with your opponent on a position versus position scale. A decided edge at one position can tilt the score in your favor. A few games are the difference between making the playoffs and being left on the outside, so my favored strategy is to do something unexpected in Round 4 or Round 5.
Yeah, you knew this was coming, didn't you? It's time to snatch up the best Defensive Specialist in the league.
In Rounds 5, 6 or 7, double up on QBs. Take yourself two good ones, getting two starter-calibre QBs before the other teams have a chance to react. Last year, I got two good ones in Rounds 7 and 8. With the consistency of QBs always in question, having two potential starters on the team is invaluable.
So now you're sitting with three Top 20 receivers, the best DS and two capable starting QBs. From here on in, it's read and react. If everyone else is picking FBs, fill in your WRs. If everyone else is taking their first Defensive Specialist, hook yourself a second or go for a FB you trust enough not to replace when he doesn't score. Even if you end up with seven or eight WRs on your roster, you've acquired choices, injury protection and possible trade bait.
And even with the success of FBs in 2007, don't jump too early. Sure, some overzealous owner will grab Dan Alexander in the 2nd or 3rd round, so let them. Alexander is heading to a new team, without that excellent Nashville offensive line, and after Alexander not a single FB impresses me enough to be selected above R7.
A wise man once said "It's not the first round picks that win you the championship. It's the midrounders who really make the difference." I stand behind that wholeheartedly, so in the midrounds, make your picks count. Overlooked players, like those second and third WRs playing behind amazing Offensive Specialists (Otis Amey, Jason Geathers, Jerel Myers and Hank Edwards jump to mind) are often available in the midsection of the draft and can net you a cool 15-20 TDs per year, an amazing amount from a skill player not good enough to crack your starting lineup.
Remy Hamilton showed us last year that there are no sure things among kickers, so just like the outdoor game there is no reason to carry more than one on your roster. Wait until late in the draft to pick up a Kicker. When you do pick one, stick with him. There's no predicting the outcome of the kicking game, so it's best to change only when the kicker's offense slumps badly, which rarely happens in the Arena game.
At the end of a 14 Round draft, your roster should include no more than one kicker, one FB, two Defensive Specialists, two quarterbacks, and six to eight WRs. And a winning record (if you watch the waiver wire carefully).
Now clear this article from your cache. Hide the link from the other owners in your league. Feign ignorance when someone asks about your draft strategy for this year. Check out the Draft Preview for information on which teams are hording hidden gems. And enjoy the uncontrollable fun that is Arena Fantasy Football.
Rich Giorgi has been following the Arena Football League since 1999. He is also a member of the Arena Football League Writers Association. Contact Rich at info@arenafootballonline.com
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