Sit 'em and Start 'em for Week 17
by Simon McGrother
June 21, 2007
Each week, Arena Football Online gives you definitive recommendations for the fantasy players to start in your lineup and those to sit down for better options.
This week, we have more player recommendations for you, based on performance, matchup and intuition.
Week 17 will be hard to predict for fantasy owners, as stars get benched with playoffs in mind and the likes of Nashville and Columbus leave it all out on the field in a final attempt to grab a playoff spot. Might be a time to risk your backups if you have Griesen or Dolezel, but owners of players still in with a chance of post-season action would hope for superhuman efforts. The biggest game of the week is the Destroyers visit to the Dragons: winner takes the last playoff spot from the loser. It is hard to imagine the motivational efforts being exerted in the NY camp this week, as the Dragons have looked awful since losing Aaron Garcia (again), whilst they only looked poor in his absence the first time. If they can even refind that form they have a chance against Columbus - but it's all a pipe dream - load up on Columbus and bench all your Dragons (except the DBs). The Rush hosting the Brigade is another tricky tie for fantasy owners, it is not likely to be a huge scorer anyway, but the prize of a first round bye is worth fighting for - but at the risk of injuries to star players? i.e., would the Rush play Bobby Sippio for 4 quarters just to avoid a home game against the Katz - hardly seems worth it.
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Matt Kohn - Nashville
Had a very decent debut for the Katz with 5 scores (but worrying 2 picks) in the narrow defeat at the hands of Kansas City. Nashville QBs have been sideline a little by the exploits of Dan Alexander on the ground, but the Rampage are very weak against the pass and Matt should improve on his week 16 performance in this must win game. |
Other quarterbacks with favorable matchups:
Matt Nagy (CLB) @ New York - Matt is almost never a first choice, and the danger here is that Columbus might build up an early lead and then play conservatively. But if your main starter is likely to take a rest, he's a much better choice this week than he usually is.
Steve Bellisari (NVD) @ Georgia - Possibly the safest bet of all this week. Georgia will want to win to try to steal top seeding from the Rados, but not enough to risk too many starters. The VooDoo have refound their offensive mojo and Steve has been just about the best QB over the home stretch.
Joe Germaine (UTA) @ Los Angeles - Huge game for the Blaze. Their troughs and peaks season comes down to a must win game at playoff bound LA. They certainly cannot rely on the Katz failing to beat the debacle that is the Rampage. I think Utah will do it courtesy of that killer combo Germaine-Burley.
Sonny Cumbie (LAA) vs Utah - Cumbie had a good week 16, has some familiar faces to throw too and welcomes the highly porous Utah secondary. Bodes well.
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Shane Stafford - Orlando
Stafford has done very well to steer his Predators to the playoffs and needs only a win in Philadelphia to secure the 3rd seed in the National conference. But the Soul too have much to play for - a win could give them a home game in the first round of the playoffs. The Soul play a conservative game keeping scores low, and the Predators do not have the kind of offense that can explode out of this type of shackling. So a tight game with scores in the 40s and disappointing scoring by the QBs. |
Other quarterbacks with unfavorable matchups:
Tony Graziani (PHI) vs Orlando - For rationale explained above Tony will be quiet. He'll do slightly better than Shane, because the Orlando will score a few more points on the ground than will the Soul.
Rohan Davey (NYD) vs Columbus - Career defining moment for Rohan - a win today and he'll probably earn a contract renewal. As seems more likely he continues to flop horribly, New York will be done for the year and Davey will be out of work.
Raymond Philyaw(KCB) @ Chicago - Clash of the tough pass defenses in the American conference, with 2nd seed (and a first round bye) in the playoffs up for grabs. Both teams will play cautiously and avoid risks, so scoring will be low.
Matt D'Orazio (CHI) vs Kansas City - The Rush probably have the edge, but will be even more keen to play conservative, risk-free ball as they'll go in to the post-season as genuine contenders. |
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Kenny Henderson - New Orleans
Amongst the many things that went wrong in the VooDoo's return season was losing Kenny Henderson to an injury. He's back and played very nicely last week, taking some of the load of Tyronne Jones. Good matchup this week against the Force who don't have a lot to play for - but always play an expansive game. Additionally the Force may sit some starters as the game progresses, both to keep them fresh for the post-season and to give their backups some experience. All in all a good week for the VooDoo offense. |
Other wide receivers with favorable matchups:
Rob Turner (LAA) vs Utah - Rob has played well while the LA receiving corps has been injury ravaged. Great performance in week 16 and a super matchup against the ultra-generous Blaze should see him in the end-zone again.
Siaha Burley (UTA) @ Los Angeles - Burley is still one of the absolute elite receivers of the league, and needs (and will deliver) a monster game against the Avengers to take the Blaze to the post-season.
Chris Jackson(GEO) vs New Orleans - Should have a few scores under his belt before he sits.
Lawrence Samuels(TAM) vs Austin - Austin have become just about the most exciting team in the league - with an offense that will challenge any defense and a defense that will ensure that the games stays close. Tampa should score freely and Samuels will be the pick of them. |
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Etu Molden - Chicago
Good move for Molden adding more options to the Rush pass offense just in time for the playoffs. This matchup is a likely miser however, and while Etu might get a few more snaps than other starters as he needs to get familiar with the playbook, he'll still be pulled if the result is no longer in doubt. |
Other wide receivers with unfavorable matchups:
Mike Horacek (NYD) vs Columbus - New York have lost their way terribly after losing Garcia again. They really need Davey and Horacek to step up as a combo - but it won't happen.
Travis LaTendresse (LVG) @ San Jose - San Jose have far too much for the Gladiators, even if they do field only backups.
Damian Harrell (COL) vs Dallas - Not necessarily a bad matchup for Damian, but the kind of end-of-season game that breeds lethargy. Dallas will probably build a lead and then sit their starters, and then the Crush have the choice of protecting their own starters or risking it all for the chance of a first round home game.
Javarus Dudley (ORL) @ Philadelphia - Likely to be a low scoring affair and Javarus won't be risked once the result is in the bag. |
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Torrance Marshall - Tampa Bay
After a few quiet weeks Torrance reminded us what he can do last week with a trio of scores. Now he faces the Wranglers, who are always leaky in defense. Tampa will want to win this as they can improve to 3rd seed if other results go their way - but Austin's full-on offense will mean that they have to play the full game to secure that win. |
Other full backs with favorable matchups:
Brian Johnson (SJS) @ Las Vegas - Las Vegas have conceded mre rushing scores than any other team and with San Jose keen to avoid injuries to key receivers they may turn to Brian to get them in the end-zone.
Dawan Moss (KCB) vs Chicago - Last chance to make my trademarked "weak-against-the" Rush joke. Dawan, if he can wrestle the ball away from Charles Frederick, should get some points.
Chris Ryan(GRR) @ Nashville - There's been some question marks over Chris' fitness in the last few weeks, but he scored in week 16, faces one of the weakest run defenses in week 17 and his team's passing game has gone to the dogs.
Bob McMillen (CHI) vs Kansas City - Kansas City are frail against the rush, and the Rush will rush accordingly. |
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Harold Wells - Columbus
New York are the hosts and are very strong against the run. Harold's been playing quite well, but is unlikely to have a strong game against the Dragons. |
Other full backs with unfavorable matchups:
Ja'Mar Toombs (NYD) vs Columbus - Toombs' excellent season will come to a disappointing end with his colleague's unable to beat the Destroyers, who's excellent run defense will make week 17 a personal downer for Ja'Mar too.
Marlion Jackson (LVG) vs San Jose - Marlion has not broken out since returning from injury and won't against the well organized SaberCats defense.
Idris Price (PHI) vs Orlando - Orlando are strong against the run.
Marlon Moye-Moore (ORL) @ Philadelphia - As are the Soul.
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Eddie Canonico - Los Angeles
Eddie has been one of the very best DBs in the league since his move to LA from Las Vegas. He faces the stearnest test of your alpha-DB with the arrival of Siaha Burley. I have alredy predicted that Burley will have a good game, but that should mean that Eddie will have plenty to do. If LA can keep this game close, then the Blaze will have to take risks too. A good day for Canonico. |
Other defensive backs with favorable matchups:
Hamin Milligan (GEO) vs New Orleans - Should be plenty of offense in this game and plenty of action for the secondary.
Clevan Thomas (SJS) @ Las Vegas - Las Vegas have become something of a run and shoot outfit, and are likely to be quite a way behind the SaberCats early and need to take chances to get back in the game. Thomas et al should find some interceptions.
Chris Angel(COL) vs Dallas - Dallas' balanced receiving corps means that Chris should see some acion, also if Rado starters hit the showers early their might be some dodgy passes ripe for the interception.
Traco Rachal (TAM) vs Austin - Austin are really airing it out and the Storm's secondary should all have good games.
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Isiah Trufant - Kansas City
This game, despite the non-negligible prize of a first round-bye, looks likely to be a comfortable win for the Rush. Once they get their noses in front they'll bench their starters and play for time of possession. Expect a slow moving game with low scoring and low stats all around. |
Other defensive backs with unfavorable matchups:
Jeremy Unertl (CHI) vs Kansas City - Even considering his terrific outing in week 16, the nature of this game suggests poor stats for Unertl.
Lin-J Shell (ORL) @ Philadelphia - Conservative low scoring game without too many pass attempts. Sub-par stats for the DBs.
Eddie Moten (PHI) vs Orlando - Works both ways.
Brandon Hefflin (CLB) @ New York - New York will have to throw everything including the kitchen sink at Columbus, but since most of Davey's passes land directly on the big green rectangle it is hard for Brandon and crew to register many points.
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Carlos Martinez - Georgia
One Georgia starter who won't get benched. Great macthup against the defensively suspect VooDoo. |
Other kickers with favorable matchups:
A.J. Haglund (SJS) @ Las Vegas - The SaberCats should make mincemeat of the Gladiators.
Jonathan Ruffin (NVD) @ Georgia - Started to miss kicks, but New Orleans will keep him I the points.
Remy Hamilton (LAA) vs Utah - Should be offense and points a plenty in this one.
Steve Videtich (UTA) @ Los Angeles - And even more for Steve as the Blaze will win a thriller.
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Brian Gowins - Grand Rapids
The Rampage have lost their way utterly and Brian cannot carry them. A poor week for Brian, because of a poor display by his team, capping a very disappointing season. |
Other kickers with unfavorable matchups:
Gary Kral (KCB) @ Chicago - The Rush win comfortably and Kansas City to score less than 40. Bad day for Gary.
Peter Martinez (CLB) @ New York - Columbus should get in front comfortably and early and then try to slow the game down to try and win 40-21 - means low points for both kickers.
Carter Warley(NYD) vs Columbus - Even fewer for the hapless Warley.
Steve Azar (LVG) vs San Jose- Las Vegas are in for a thrashing and nothing Steve can do about it.
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Simon McGrother is a founding member of ArenaFootballOnline.com, the #1 source for Arena Fantasy Football information, and has been following the Arena Football League for 4 years. Contact Simon at smcgrother@arenafootballonline.com
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