Mock Drafts: The Lie that Reveals Truth
Analysis by Paul Celmer
What round should I take Bobby Sippio in?
When should I take my first Kicker or Defensive Specialist?
When should I grab a backup quarterback?
Questions like these puzzle every manager of a Arena Fantasy Football team on draft day. But there is something you can do to avoid the blank stares and snickers that might greet you if you blurt out the name of a Defensive Specialist in round 3. A mock draft is a technique you can use to practice your drafting strategy, gain insights into drafting trends, and to determine in what rounds any given player will likely be drafted.
This article analyzes a quick and dirty 10 round mock draft that took place, ironically, on Superbowl Sunday by members of the ArenaFootballOnline staff.
The fantasy lineup for our mock league looks like this:
1 QB (Quarterback)
1 OS (Offensive Specialist)
2 WRs (can be WR/DB or WR/LB)
1 FB/LB (Fullback/Linebacker)
1 K (Kicker)
2 DS (Defensive Specialists)
And here are the essentials of the scoring system:
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Category
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Fantasy Points
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Every 20 yards Passing
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1
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Touchdown Pass
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3
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Interception Thrown
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-2
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|
Every 3 yards Rushing
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1
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Rushing Touchdown
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6
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Every 10 yards Receiving
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1
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Touchdown Catch
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5
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Reception
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1
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PAT (kicking)
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1
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FG (< 30 yards)
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3
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FG (=> 50 yards)
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6
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INT return for TD
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6
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Fumble Recovery return for TD
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6
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Kick Return for TD (missed FG, kick off)>
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6
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INT (Defensive)
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6
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Fumble Recovery (Defensive)
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3
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Sack
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3
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Tackle
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4
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Important: you should always carefully study your leagues scoring system before the draft to get every possible advantage over your opponents.
One reason it is essential to study the scoring system is because of this one simple truth often overlooked by those caught up in the emotion of the game: the best player in the Arena is not always the best producer of fantasy points. Don't just assume that all TDs thrown by a QB will give you 6 points. There are always little quirks in every fantasy league. And as you can see in the system for this mock draft, there are a number of twists that might surprise rookie team managers. Most notably, QBs only get 3 points for passing TDs. Another odd thing is that TD receptions only get 5 points, not 6. And there are a number of ways for defensive players to score, in keeping with the ìironmanî mentality of the pre-substitution rule league. All of these unexpected scoring rules are designed to give equal weight to offensive and defensive players, which again is something that must be kept in mind during the draft.
Here is the result of the draft:
Round-by-Round Analysis
Round 1
Of course Dolezal and Harrell are top picks. Harrell is probably the better pick given the scoring system, but Dolezel had an outstanding year least year and this year the team around him looks even better. Team 3's Shane Stafford is a risky pick here. Yes, he has been fantastic and seems to get better every year. Still, he is moving to a new team (although staying in the same state).
Round 2
I love Derek "Baby Moss" Lee. But I love Team 7's Bobby Sippio more.
I think he will continue to be an outstanding playmaker, even exceeding his
numbers from 2006. Team 8's Round 2 pick (which is the 9th player taken --
the draft snakes starting from 1 to 8, then 8 down to 1), Marcus Nash, is suspect
in my view. Sure he has been a monster in the past and being in Dallas will
only help him. But can he stay healthy?
Round 3
Team 2 took a gamble: Peter Warrick could be a problem. Right now he is not showing up to training camp. He probably should have went in Round 4 or 5 anyway, since he is not proven himself in the indoor game. Kevin Swayne is a bit of a reach here, but should do well with Aaron Garcia coming back. Steve Gonzalez is definitely a reach here for Team 7, who seems to be reaching the entire draft. There is always one oddball in every league.
Round 4
Team 1's Dialleo Burks did well last season and this former XFL player should do well again this year. However, he probably should have gone in Round 5. With Will Pettis already on this roster, Team 1 is taking a gamble by putting all of his eggs in the Dallas basket. Very risky, and the bye weeks can really bite you as well. Aaron Garcia in round 4 for Team 5's first quarterback seems like a good gamble. Remember, the last time Garcia came back from an injury he was on fire. Sherdrick Bonner in Round 4 might be too early. Bonner is aging. However, the word is that the coaches will open up the offense more this season. So he should see an uptick in his numbers over last season. I like T.T. Toliver here, despite his move to a new team this season.
Round 5
Team 1's Dane Krager is outstanding, but I'm not convinced he is worth a 5th round pick. But Team 1 was worried that he would not last until round 6, where he should have been taken. Team 2 takes the first defensive player, Rashad Floyd. A good value pick here, given the scoring system and the fact that each team must carry two (yes, two!) defensive players. A run on defensive players begins. Team 5 got caught in the trap of being impatient and just wanting to fill roster spots, as Phil Glover should be taken in Round 6 or 7.
Round 6
Most fantasy managers wait until the last possible moment to take a kicker. But
Remy Hamilton is certainly the exception. This is one kicker that puts up monster
fantasy points, especially if you get extra points for long field goals, and
he is worth a 6th round pick. Team 6's James Jordan has potential, but I am
worried about the situation in Kansas City after the tough season last year
and the still unresolved QB situation.
Round 7
Team 8's Marlon "Triple-M" Moye-Moore is a great pick in Round 7. That man is one solid fullback. He had his best year ever in the league in 2006, with 11 rushes into the endzone. Peter Martinez should not have been taken this high by Team 7.
Round 8
Team 4 takes Dan Alexander as fullback. This seems the right round for this pick. Ryan Vena and Steve Bellisari are certainly gambles in Round 8, both of which could pay big dividends, although both probably would be available in Round 12 or 13.
Round 9
Team 1's Etu Molden is a good value here, as he should have been taken earlier. Team 4's Jermaine Jones is a decent pick here as well. Team 3's Tony Graziani is a bit of a gamble, but a nice backup. He should bounce back this year as there will be more focus on protecting him and giving him just a little more time to make his throws. Plus, the Soul will be on ESPN more than once.
Round 10
Team 8 makes another reach. Fullback Peter Lazare is a gamble here since he is new to the AFL, but he is a good gamble since he is coming off a fantastic season in af2. Orshwante Bryant is a very solid pick here and is a great value in Round 10.
Summary:
Naturally, a real draft would most likely go 14 or even 16 rounds. But this mock draft should give you an idea of how to develop a winning strategy.
Team 4 and Team 8 currently have no backup quarterback. This is a risky strategy, but it did allow these teams to get some crucial depth at the wide receiver position. Even in a ten-team league, waiting past round 10 to draft a backup might be OK, as there usually are at least two quarterbacks that emerge from nowhere early in the season. However, Team 4 has to watch the waiver wire like a hawk or could be caught in an unpleasant situation should John Dutton be injured.
Teams 1 and 2 seem balanced and to have come out of the draft the best of the eight. Team 1 decided not to worry about picking up any of the OSs (a position required in this fantasy league but which is formally eliminated with the new substitution rule. However, the OS will still in theory be a consideration -- just think of the old OS as a WR1). I think that this is a good move since with the new substitution rules I would expect more scoring from all stud receivers. Still, I would have to give the nod to Team 2. Team 2 shows a patient draft strategy, waiting for the maximum value pick in each round. And Team 1's Dolezal is good, but it usually is fairly easy to find a serviceable quarterback. Team 2's Damien "Highlight Reel" Harrell is fantasy gold that will more than make up for the potential no-show of Peter Warrick.
Paul Celmer is a member of the Arena Football League Writers Association and has been participating in arena fantasy leagues for 8 years. Contact Paul at pcelmer@arenafootballonline.com
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