2007 Arena Fantasy Football Draft Preview
National Conference - Southern
More than any division in the Arena Football League, the National Conference - Southern is all about questions. Who will start in Austin? Who will replace Matt Nagy in Georgia? Will the Voodoo be competitive again? Is Shane Stafford the answer for Orlando? Who stepped into Stafford's shoes in Tampa? Where is Joe Hamilton hiding out?
Austin Wranglers
The quarterback position in Austin is up for grabs throughout training camp, with Arena returnee QB Adrian McPherson and Arena rookie QB Chris Redman fighting for the starting role. In a battle of this type, a slight edge has to go to McPherson, the 2004 AFL Rookie of the Year (3297 yards passing, 61 TDs, 259 rushing yards, 19 rushing TDs). However, Redman is a pure passer while McPherson is more of a running threat. If you are drafting before a clear starter is declared, take a stab on McPherson in R11 or R12, as he has a better chance of being under center when the Wranglers start the season.
WR Kevin Nickerson posted 24 total TDs for the second straight year in Austin. Nickerson finished with 98 catches for 1082 yards, failing to score in only two contests. Look for Nickerson to improve this year, making him a great selection in R4 or R5 as a WR2. Last year, OS Derrick Lewis burst onto the scene with 113 catches for 1411 yards and 23 TDs. During one extremely productive stretch, Lewis scored in 9 straight games. After spending some time with the Houston Texans, Lewis is back in the arena. Look for Lewis to be slightly overlooked on draft day but don't make the mistake of letting him slip past R3, as he has the potential to be drafted like a WR2 while putting up WR1 numbers. The Wranglers have great expectations for WR Jake Schifino and you could do worse than taking a chance on Schifino in R10 or R11.
Austin's FB Dane Krager was arguably one of the most productive fantasy FBs in the AFL, collecting 197 yards and 12 TDs on the ground, adding 10 catches for 84 yards and 23 solo tackles. Krager is our top rated FB and should go somewhere in R6 or R7. FB Chad Dukes will take some pressure off Krager, but isn't worth more than a backup spot. Wait for waivers and pick up Dukes, if necessary.
K Todd Sievers has got a leg, connecting on 90 of 105 extra point attempts and 14 of 25 field goals in 2006. Not a single soul will be watching Sievers on draft day and you might get away with snagging him in the last round, although R12 or R13 seems a safer bet.
Austin's defense is one of the better units, led by 12-year veteran DS Damon Mason, who made 84 solo stops last season while intercepting 8 passes, the highest total of his career. Mason makes an excellent DS1 and should be drafted in R7 or R8. Joining Mason is another fine DS1 choice, DS Nate Coggins. Last year, N-Cog was credited with 80 solo tackles and 1 INT and if you get him anywhere after R8, consider him a bargain.
Georgia Force
One of the biggest mistakes of the season could be if you assume that QB Ryan Vena can't put up decent numbers with the Georgia Force offense. Back in 2004, Vena threw 57 TDs for Columbus, adding 226 yards and 14 TDs on the ground. After spending one record-setting year in af2, Vena is back in The Bigs and the Force have enough confidence in him to let Nagy leave in free agency. Target Vena as your backup QB in R10 or R11 and you'll feel confident when he's pressed into action.
One of the things Vena has working for him is an All-Star set of receivers. Throwing 80+ TDs shouldn't be hard when you're playing with the likes of OS Chris "Spiderman" Jackson (119 for 1438, 36 TDs), WR Derek "Baby Moss" Lee (127 for 1427, 26 TDs), WR Troy Bergeron (105 for 1372, 31TDs in 2005) and WR Kevin McKenzie (85 for 1023, 14TDs in 2004). Jackson should be selected as pick #6 in most drafts and will produce 30+ TDs no matter who ends up being the quarterback to throw to him. Lee shouldn't go much later than Jackson, probably in the end of R1 or very early R2. Bergeron is an interesting prospect this year and you can guarantee he'll find his way onto the field plenty in Atlanta. Bergeron is probably a WR2 but can easily produce WR1 statistics, so grab him in R4 or R5. McKenzie is a good role player who was overshadowed by injuries last year. Expect McKenzie to contribute alot on kick returns and finish with about 800 yards and 10 TDs, making him a decent WR3 and R10 pick.
Like most teams in the AFL, the Force have never been accused of being a running team. FB Kevin Aldridge should get the majority of the carries and repeat his 91 yard rushing season of a year ago (with 6 TDs) which makes him a FB2.
K Keith Gispert and K Mark Lewis are competing of the starting job in the Force training camp. Even though Lewis played in only 13 games for Columbus in 2006, he still accounted for an impressive 65 extra points (70 attempts) and was 22 of 35 on field goal attempts. Gispert missed almost the entire season last year but had impressive years in 2004 and 2005. Steer clear of this battle until it is decided but if you have to pick one of these kickers, lean towards Lewis.
Georgia signed one of the better defensive players this offseason in DS Hamin Milligan. Milligan ended 2006 with 58 tackles in 11 games. His durability is in question but Milligan should make a nice DS1 and should be selected in R7 or R8. DS Willie Gary will join Milligan in the defensive backfield and is coming off a season with 48 tackles after posting 81 in 2005. Expect somewhere between those two numbers for Gary, who is pegged as a DS2 late in your draft.
New Orleans VooDoo
It just wouldn't be the New Orleans VooDoo without QB Andy Kelly. Kelly, a 14-year vet, threw 96 TD passes with the VooDoo in 2005 but just couldn't get untracked in 2006, bouncing from Utah to Kansas City, being replaced by younger QBs in both cases. Given ample playing time, Kelly could easily produce 60-70 TDs this season, making him a fine QB2 in R10 or R11. Kelly will start the season but will be pressed by QB Steve Bellisari, who moves up this year from af2 with an eye on a starting job. Don't draft Bellisari, but don't be shy to grab him if Kelly faulters.
New Orleans welcomes one of my favorite players, WR Anthony Hines. Last year in Grand Rapids, Hines surprised everyone by catching 124 balls for 1329 yards and 25 TDs, with 3 TDs on the ground. Hines is gritty, tough and talented, and should lead the VooDoo in receiving, making him a player I'll be staring at in R3 or R4. The rest of the New Orleans receivers are unproven quantities, with WR Tyrone Jones the lone veteran. But Jones hasn't played consistently since 2005, so don't expect more than 600 yards and 12 TDs at the most, as the VooDoo will find out what they have in all those rookies. WR Kenny Henderson, WR Tiger Jones, WR Chris Maddox, WR Troy Mason, WR Derek McCoy and WR Donovan Morgan all have 1 year or less in experience. The best bet to succeed is Morgan, who was af2 Rookie of the year in 2005, putting up 1687 yards and 57 TDs, and you might take a chance on him in R14.
FB Dan Curran loves playing in purple. The last time Curran donned the Bones logo, he ran for 336 yards and 21 TDs. I would expect slightly lower totals this time around, but a season of 200 yards rushing and 15 TDs would make him a fantasy star. When other teams are going with safer bets, you can grab Curran in R9 and come away smelling like roses.
K Eric Houle is not an exciting option and should not be drafted. If he can improve on his field goal percentage, Houle might someday be considered a K1. For now, leave him for the waivers process.
Defensively, New Orleans signed one of the bright stars of the Arena League, DS Chris D. Brown. Last year, Brown was responsible for 104 solo stops and four INTs, returning three of those to the end zone. Expect Brown to easily match, and perhaps surpass those numbers this year, making him a sure DS1. Brown should go as the second DS overall in R7 or R8. It's expected that Brown will be joined by DS Calvin Spears, who totalled 43 tackles and two INTs in 2006. Draft Spears as a DS2, as his numbers should rise this season. DS Cory Bailey should see some time as well after recording 117.5 tackles in af2.
Orlando Predators
The biggest news in the AFL this winter was when QB Shane Stafford signed with the Orlando Predators. Proving that money trumps loyalty, Stafford came over from Tampa Bay, punching a stake firmly into one of the most fevered rivalries in the AFL. Stafford threw for 86 TDs in 2006 and ran for another 10. This came after he threw for 83 TDs in 2005, running for another 10. This year, expect Stafford to throw for about 85 TDs and run for another 10 (Stafford is nothing if not consistent), making him one of the best QBs in the league and an early R1 pick in any draft.
WR Jimmy Fryzel (87 catches, 1110 yards, 23 TDs), WR Jerrian James (69 for 882, 16 TDs), WR Javarus Dudley (78 for 1035, 14 TDs), and WR DeAndrew Rubin (46 for 588, 10 TDs) all should be drafted. Fryzel, James and Dudley going somewhere between R3 and R6, and Rubin should follow in R10 or R11. WR Lin-J Shell also could see playing time but should likely be left for the waivers process.
The Predators have one of the better FBs in the league in FB Marlon Moye-Moore. Last year, Moye-Moore ran for 111 yards and 11 TDs, and should improve upon those numbers even though Stafford will vulture a TD now and again. Draft Marlon as one of the early FBs, perhaps in R6 or R7.
K Jay Taylor proved himself to be one of the most consistent in the game in 2006, connecting on 92 of 100 extra point attempts and 14 of 22 field goals. Taylor should have even more chances this season, and is a sure K1.
Near the end of 2006, DS Khalil Carter starting making some showings on offense. Carter will see his most playing time on the defensive side of the ball, where he recorded 72 tackles and 2 INTs. Draft Carter in R7 or R8. The only other defensive back with playing experience is DS Chris Pointer, who had a fine season in 2006 with 61 solo stops and an INT. Pointer makes a good DS2, so look to grab him in R11 or R12.
Tampa Bay Storm
Tampa Bay will rely on 14-year veteran QB John Kaleo to lead their offense. Kaleo is consistent but not overly flashy, never throwing for more than 80 TDs in a season. Most likely, Kaleo is good for 65 TDs at the most, relegating him to QB2 status in your draft.
WR Terrill Shaw came back from three almost invisible seasons to post 111 catches for 1498 yards and 37 TDs last year. However, his quarterback was someone named Dolezel. This year, Shaw may find the sledding a bit tougher but still should post good enough numbers to be considered a WR1 on your team. WR Lawrence Samuels had one of the best seasons of his 13-year career last season when he caught 115 passes for 1306 yards and 22 TDs. However, as of February 9th, Samuels has been placed on the Refused to Report list by the Storm, meaning he won't be in camp. Draft him at your own risk until he reports. WR Demetris Bendross (55 for 767, 11 TDs) and WR Lynarise Elpheage (43 for 445, 10 TDs) are the best of the rest in Tampa but shouldn't be expected to surpass those numbers in 2007. WR Barry Wagner is one of the all-time greats of the game, but sadly has faded in current years and should not be drafted.
Continuing their theme of collecting aging stars, Tampa signed FB Leroy Thompson to compliment FB Jarrod Penright. Thompson ran for 113 yards and 6 TDs in 2006, while Penright ran for 48 yards and 6 TDs, making neither of them particularly interesting prospects. Steer clear of the boulders here and monitor these runners as the season progresses.
Coach Tim Markum is not a huge fan of kickers, which probably explains why he does not have a kicker on his roster at this time. Obviously, don't draft a kicker from the Storm until they get one (and even then watch out in case he gets himself cut).
DS Jeroid Johnson was on his way to a fine season, tallying 54 solo stops and 5 INTs in only 11 games, returning two of those for TDs. Johnson may be overlooked on draft day, so look for him in R9 or R10 hoping he puts up DS1 stats. DS Clarence LeBlanc and DS Ronald "Bo" Rogers will battle throughout training camp for the other starting job, so monitor these two through waivers as the year gets under way.
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