2007 Arena Fantasy Football Draft Preview
National Conference - Eastern
Last year, there was a dominant fantasy force in the National Conference - Eastern Division. This year, I think there will be another dominant force but perhaps not the one you expected. And there could be as many as three tornado offenses. This conference has improved, two record setting QBs are back and the most televised team in the league has many questions to answer (I'm talking to you, Philadelphia).
Columbus Destroyers
No team was more active in signing free agents than the Destroyers and the wealth of their signings make you think Columbus is serious about scoring a devastating amount of points to go along with their exceptional defense.
The most important signing the Destroyers made was QB Matt Nagy. Overlooked in many drafts last year (and surely not trusted to be a QB1), all Nagy did was throw for 4265 yards and 85 TDs with the Georgia Force. Columbus ranked 15th last year in scoring but expect that to change with Nagy behind center. If Nagy goes overlooked again, you'll find yourself an amazing talent in R4 or R5.
The revamped staff of receivers includes the welcomed return of WR Damien Groce, who caught 21 TDs in only 11 games last season. Expect a healthy Groce to put up numbers closer to his 2005 form, which saw him go for 1417 yards and 21 TDs. This proven veteran can probably be drafted in R5 or later, which is where you build your championship team. Complimenting Groce are several exceptional receivers, among them WR Josh Bush (64 catches, 676 yards, 13 TDs with Grand Rapids), WR Henry Douglas (86 for 1012 and 17 TDs in 2005), WR Tony Locke (157 catches, 2310 yards and 43 TDs in the last two years), WR Marcus Knight (23 TDs in 2005) and WR David Saunders (76 for 835 and 19 TDs last year). Locke and Bush are the most talented among that group and should be sneakily drafted in R6 or R7, while Saunders and Douglass could be grabbed in R10 or R11. All are veterans familiar with the indoor game. Locke and Bush should develop into Nagy's favorite receivers and are good enough to instantly insert in your Week 1 starting lineup. I expect some fireworks from a usually moribund Destroyers offense this year.
FB Harold Wells has a year of Arena Ball under his belt and should improve upon his 2006 rushing totals of 134 yards and 7 TDs. Grab him late in the draft and you'll have a consistent player at a position you don't want to spend too much time thinking about.
Another huge free agent signing was K Peter Martinez, who was one of the best kickers in the league in 2005, going 22 of 37 on field goal attempts and 78 of 91 on extra points. Expect that extra point percentage to go up this year and expect Martinez to get plenty of chances, making him one of the best kickers on draft day.
Always a strong point, the Destroyer defense returns the 2006 Defensive Player of the Year in DS Jerald Brown (53 tackles and 11 INTs). Brown will benefit from return of his playing mate, DS Brandon Hefflin (69 tackles, 2 INTs). Both are exciting young players who should anchor a solid unit. Both should be among the top defensive players come year end.
Dallas Desperados
Dallas has a quarterback who eats nails for breakfast, spits lightning on game day and has the vision of an eagle. QB Clint Dolezal holds the single season record for most TDs thrown, and while expecting another 105 TD season may be asking alot, Dolezel has the talent and the motivation (the unceremonious dumping by Orlando one game short of the ArenaBowl) to repeat that feat. Expect Clint to go #1 or #2 overall in most drafts.
The Desperados got very, very scary offensively when they signed WR Marcus Nash. After starting 2006 with 23 TDs in 9 games, Nash battled injuries and the growing pains of his QB, finishing with only 28 TDs. With Dolezel at QB, Nash will come closer to approaching his previous expertise, and could surpass his 2004 season totals (154 catches, 1771 yards, 46 TDs). Draft Nash in R1 or R2, if he lasts that long. WR Will Pettis (93 for 1256, 26 TDs) and WR Dialleo Burks (92 for 1130, 29 TDs) are both familiar with the Dallas offense and should be considered at your WR1 position. Favor Pettis over Burks on draft day, with Pettis going in R2 and Burks in R3.
FB Duke Pettijohn and FB Josh White both enjoyed occasional success last season in the league's highest scoring offense, but their numbers will be tempered by the success of the Desperado's passing game. Neither are better than late round picks and make good backups at the FB position.
K Carlos Martinez couldn't believe his good fortune last year, as he got to attempt 130 extra points, connecting on 117. That's more than most kickers score with field goals and extra points combined. Expect more of the same, making C-Mart a Top 3 kicker.
When your team is scoring 70 points per game the tendency is to overlook the defense. But the Desperados have one of the finest defensive specialists in the league in DS Jermaine Jones. Jones finished with 98 tackles and 8 INTs, remarkable stats. The second DS spot on the Desperados is up in the air but expect Jones to continue to star. Pick him in R7 or R8 as your DS1.
New York Dragons
Last year, the first ever quarterback to throw for 100 TDs in a season (twice) broke a bone in his leg and spent the season convalescing. Now, QB Aaron Garcia is back for a 14th season. The last time Garcia suffered a season ending injury he returned to throw for 100 TDs. Expect 80-90 TDs from a healthy Garcia, who may not be one of the Top 10 QBs drafted, making him an amazing steal in R7 or R8. Wait that long if you have ice-water in your veins and are good at bluffing.
Like a fine wine, WR Mike Horacek gets better with age, as last season's numbers testify. Horacek finished with 121 catches for 1666 yards with 35 TDs, his fifth season of 30+ TDs. Horacek should at least approach those numbers and maybe even shatter them this year, making him a great WR1 and definite first round pick. WR Kevin Swayne is likewise brillant, finishing 2006 with 94 for 1105 and 27 TDs. Swayne is often overlooked on draft day and you may just find him staring at you in R5. If he is, grab him quickly. The Dragons also sport a couple of uniquely useful players in WR Chris Anthony and WR Will Holder. Both are good enough to be on a roster but neither are good enough to rely on as starters. WR Angel Estrada could see more time on offense and special teams this year, making him a fine pick with lots of potential late in the draft.
FB is not a strong position for the Dragons but FB Brandon Jones seems to be the best runner on the roster. Still, temper any expectations for the New York running game and take a wait and see attitude through waivers.
Currently the Dragons have no kicker on their roster, so obviously you can't draft what isn't there. Look elsewhere for your kicker and monitor this position once the final rosters have been established. The New York kicker should get ample opportunity for points.
Despite giving up the 4th most points in the league last year, the Dragons house two of the better defensive players in the AFL in DS Billy Parker and DS Dahnel Singfield. Parker collected 83 tackles and 10 INTs and spent time with the Carolina Panthers. Singfield collected 60 tackles and 7 INTs, returning two for TDs, in only 11 games. Parker should be one of the first 10 defensive players selected, while Singfield will last just a smidgen longer. DS Chris Angel could also approach his 2005 numbers (87 tackles, 2 INTs) if he's allowed to have significant playing time.
Philadelphia Soul
QB Tony Graziani has seen better days. Once a Top 5 pick, Graziani threw for 3 TDs or less in 7 of the 12 games he played last season. Three consecutive 90+ TD seasons came crashing down around Graziani in 2006 due to injuries and bad decision-making. He'll look to recover, of course, but shouldn't be used as better than a QB2 on draft day. Buyer beware.
WR Sean Scott was expected to break away last season, and actually improved his numbers to 87 catches for 999 yards, with 17 TDs and another 7 scores on the ground. But Scott failed to score multiple TDs in 9 games and was actually held scoreless in 4 of those, making him conspicuously inconsistent. Scott should be seen as a WR2 and if you draft him before R7 you've paid too high a price. The man who could make the difference for the Soul is OS Steve Gonzalez, who comes up from af2 with a notable pedigree, scoring 44 TDs for the Manchester Wolves in 2006. Draft day participants will be skeptical of Gonzalez, making him a nice sleeper pick in R9 or R10. Take a chance and you may get lucky. WR JJ McKelvey battled injuries but was consistent, scoring in 8 of the 9 games in which he played. McKelvey is nothing better than a WR3 and should be drafted accordingly. In a puzzling move, Philadelphia's most dangerous offensive threat, WR Mike Brown, is listed as a DS on the Soul roster. Brown led the team with 1957 all-purpose yards and is dangerous as a kick returner (2 TDs), a runner (101 yards, 4 TDs) and a receiver (80 for 961, 13 TDs). Brown could be a steal in R8 or R9, if your league lists him as a DB, as he'll surely get playing time on the offensive side of the ball.
FB Wes Ours was one of the bright spots for the Soul, running for 130 yards and 11 TDs. Ours plays in an inconsistent running game, but can still be drafted as a FB1 in R11 or R12.
The Soul have a good leg in K Todd France and he should score about 130 points on the season. His field goal percentage was a paltry 42% in 2006, but France should improve upon that and end the season as a Top 5 kicker.
DS Eddie Moten led the league in INTs with 13, returning three of them for TDs. Moten also totalled 91 tackles, making him an excellent choice as a DS1. Should he slip into R7 or R8, grab him and smile all year long. DS Johnnie Harris, the 1998 AFL Defensive Player of the Year, showed there still is alot of gas left in the tank in 2005, making 70 solo stops and 6 INTs. He and Moten should team up for one of the best secondaries in the league. Draft Harris as your DS2, although he may end the season with DS1 numbers.
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