The Arena Guru's Fantasy Impact
By Scott Lange
Focus on Matt Nagy (Columbus Destroyers)
The busiest team in the off-season was the Columbus Destroyers. This team did some serious re-hauling during the off-season after signing QB Matt Nagy, acquiring local favorite WR Damien Groce, along with WR Josh Bush (from Grand Rapids), WR Henry Douglas (from Chicago), and WR Tony Locke (from Los Angeles). Looking at that lineup, first indication would be that Columbus has an explosive team offensively. One would figure Nagy should have no problems distributing passes after his remarkable year last year. But, let's take a closer look.
Let's look at the Georgia offense Nagy worked with last year. Nagy's 85 TDs were thrown to arguable the best WR duo in the AFL: Chris "Spider Man" Jackson, and Derek "Baby Moss" Lee, and my personal favorite, Jamin Elliot. C-Jax and Lee are two proven WRs that make defenders look silly on a nightly basis. Both of those tall targets could be considered Top 10, easily. C-Jax is a consistent seven-year vet that you know will produce. Lee is the perfect compliment, posting 25+ TDs and over 1000 yards last year. In Lee, the Force have a huge star primed to go supernova. Nagy ended 2006 with the 4th highest total in TD passes and passing yards. There is no question that these are solid stats all around for an Arena QB.
Now we look at the 2007 Matt Nagy where things have changed. Changed like the seasons, in my opinion. No more "Spiderman." No more "Baby Moss." No chance to work again with Troy Bergeron. Instead Groce, Bush and Locke replace the trio Nagy would have had this year. In 2006, C-Jax and Lee combined for 62 receiving TDs. Now I remind everyone that Jackson missed some time last year due to injury. Groce, Bush, and Locke produced a total of 50! Yes, it's true that Groce missed time with injury, but I can't get over this huge drop from Jackson/Lee to Groce/Bush/Locke. Jackson and Lee have proven they are a great one-two punch but what exactly do we know about Groce, Bush, and Locke? They are all inexperienced and Groce has some serious durability issues.
With all that stated outloud, one of the benefits I see Nagy having is the division matchups he'll face in the East. The Eastern Conference has some of the highest scoring teams in the league. The Destroyers will play Dallas, New York, and Philadelphia twice this year, all teams that love to score a lot of points, so Nagy will get his shots to throw the ball a ton. Another benefit is Nagy's experience as an AFL QB. Nagy is a four-year vet and has performed well where ever he has been. This will be the year Nagy can prove himself as a premier AFL QB, and it's up to him to deliver for the Destroyers.
There is no question the Destroyers offense will improve this year. However, the talent around Nagy is what caused concern. Will Groce, Bush, and Locke be enough for Nagy to meet or even exceed his numbers from his Georgia stint? Only time will tell, but Nagy's group of young WRs had better stay healthy and produce. For the 2007 season, I see Matt Nagy as a Top 10 QB, posting 70+ TDs, and 4000+ yards, with the potential for markedly less or markedly more. Nagy will be Boom or Bust and this analysis concludes that Nagy struggles this year with his new team.
Scott Lange is a founding member of Arena Football Online and has been following Arena Football for 6 years. Contact Scott at slange@arenafootballonline.com
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