Fantasy Matchups for Week 16
by The Stat Guy, Scott Lange
Wow, last week's 5-4 is not the way I would like to finish down the stretch. Games are getting harder to predict now that some teams already have their spots in the playoffs. Some teams would like for the season to end so they can start thinking about next year. Dammit, I am The StatGuy, and I will rebound this week, I guarantee it!
Last Week's Record: 5-4
Season Record: 51-30
AUSTIN AT ORLANDO
This is a tricky game due to the fact that the Wranglers are a very good road team. Orlando, on the other hand, has been unbeatable at home, sporting a 6-1 record in the Jungle. Last week the Preds got after the Kansas City Brigade defensively, forcing two turnovers while allowing only 42 points. Meanwhile, the Wranglers stifled Grand Rapids, allowing only 38 points. I expect a low scoring defensive effort from both teams this week. The Preds have already locked up home field advantage for their first playoff game. The Jungle is just not kind to the visiting folk, and the Preds will come out with enough juice to win this game. QB Joe Hamilton will post some nice stats, until the 4th quarter when he'll get pulled to rest up for the playoffs. Orlando OS Jimmy Fryzel has been Hamilton's main target since coming back from being diagnosed with diabetes. Fryzel and Hamilton definitely have some chemistry going right now, and they should be able to hook up a couple more times against the stingy Austin defense, making them my fantasy players in this game.
Orlando 45 Austin 40
NEW YORK AT DALLAS
This is a tasty matchup that should produce a multitude of points and a multitude of fantasy value. The Dragons come into this game riding high on a four-game winning streak. Some of the experts believe the Dallas starters will not play the whole game, resting up for the playoffs. Don't believe it folks, as Dallas needs to get back on track after last week's disappointing loss to the Soul. I expect QB Clint Dolezel to rebound in a big way, and yes he will play the entire game. I expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 280 yards passing and six TDs, as Dolezel sets the single season mark for TD passes. Oh, and don't expect Dolezel to throw four picks in this game either. The Dragons defense must be able to withstand the Dallas offense if they want to have a shot at winning this game. Dragon QB Nick Browder is highly capable of keeping the Dragons offense on the field and scoring points. Dallas will come out on a mission, wanting to end the season with an impressive win, will play with verve and emotion, and will win by double digits. My fantasy players for this game will be Dallas QB Clint Dolezel and NY QB Nick Browder.
Dallas 58 New York 45
ARIZONA AT COLORADO
The defending AFL Champion Colorado Crush come into this game with the best record in the American Conference. However, the Crush can not afford to look past the Arizona Rattlers. Both teams will come out with their starters for the first three quarters, but after that, some of the starters may be seeing some bench time. OS Damien Harrell will want to put an exclamation mark on his record breaking season. You can bet Crush QB John Dutton knows about all of the records Harrell has broken. Dutton and Harrell have one more game this season to pile up some crazy stats. Arizona rested QB Shedrick Bonner in the second half of last week's blowout over Las Vegas. Bonner passed for five TDs in the first half and I expect the same type of performance this week. He won't last past the third quarter, as Arizona will rest their starters. Colorado has too much firepower, and a record setting OS. The Crush will win this game easily as they prepare for the playoffs. My fantasy players for this game are Crush QB John Dutton and OS Damian Harrell.
Colorado 55 Arizona 45
KANSAS CITY AT UTAH
The Blaze suffered a devastating loss to the Chicago Rush last week, as they try to secure a playoff birth in their first season. For the Blaze this week is simple. Win and you're in, lose and your season ends. Utah faces a Kansas City team that has reverted back to their old ways of playing bad defense and not scoring enough points offensively. The once promising offense of the Brigade has now averaged only 42 points per game the last two weeks. The Blaze will rebound big this week in their home finale and making the playoffs in their first AFL season. Blaze QB Andy Kelly (or will it be QB Joe Germaine?) should be able to have a field day against the pitiful KC pass defense. Expect OS Siaha Burley to do some serious damage and post some insane numbers. Utah wants this win in the worst way, so starting any players like Kelly and Burley is a no-brainer. (Keep an eye on the Germaine situation, as Coach Danny White isn't saying who will start right now, that tricky devil.) I also like Kansas City QB Chris Sanders. I expect all three of these players to play the whole game and put up some solid stats.
Utah 52 Kansas City 40
CHICAGO AT GRAND RAPIDS
Will the real Chicago Rush team please stand up? The Rush offense produced an amazing 84 points last week, as OS Bobby Sippio posted a sick 10 catches for 217 yards. Oh, and by the way, he also caught a career high six touchdowns for the second time in three weeks! Despite last week's loss, the Grand Rapids Rampage has played better down the stretch, and is playing at home, where they are 5-2. The Rush has not figured out how to win on the road, as their 1-6 record indicates. This is another one of the games where it will be safe to start players for fantasy purposes. Neither one of these teams have a defense to brag about, so this game will contain a lot of points. I think both Offensive Specialists will have huge games, as nobody can seem to stop Sippio and OS Anthony Hines has been solid all year. All I need to see is the Grand Rapids home record and the Chicago road record to pick the winner in this game.
Grand Rapids 58 Chicago 52
PHILADELPHIA AT GEORGIA
This will be the most intriguing match up of the week. The winner of this game goes to the playoffs and the loser's season is over. Does it get any better than this on the last weekend of the AFL? Tony Graziani returned and led the Soul to an impressive win against Dallas. Georgia, on the other hand, failed to show up last week in their showdown with the New York Dragons. Offensively the Force scored a season-low 35 points, but Georgia is playing at home this week, so I fully expect QB Matt Nagy, OS Chris Jackson, and WR Derek Lee to make sure they don't lose this game. Even though Graz looked good, I just don't think the Soul have enough talent to win such a big game. This game will be closer than people think, but in the end, Nagy will make enough plays to carry the Force into the playoffs.
Georgia 52 Philadelphia 50
TAMPA BAY AT NASHVILLE
The Nashville defense was destroyed in every phase of the game last week, giving up 73 points to the lowly Los Angeles Avengers. The defense gave up a total of eight touchdowns, which included five in the second half when they were outscored 35-22. Their defense must regroup this week against a very powerful Tampa Bay Storm offense. The Storm's late comeback attempt against Columbus came up just short, losing 51-48. Both teams are evenly matched, but I think QB Shane Stafford has the experience and the weapons to win this game. Nashville has a decent defense, but the offense is a little like stagnant pond water. Offense wins AFL football games, and the Storm has plenty of that in the form of OS Freddy Soloman and WR Lawrence Samuels. OS T.T. Tolliver will find the end zone at least once for Nashville.
Tampa Bay 50 Nashville 48
LAS VEGAS AT LOS ANGELES
Yikes!! Can't the AFL just skip this game for the sanity of their fans? If you like watching sloppy football with a whole lot of non-defensive plays, this is your game! (I hear you saying "Don't hold back, StatGuy... tell us what you really think.") The Gladiators are coming off a pitiful 47-point blow out and have officially claimed the "Worse Team in the AFL" honor for the year 2006. The Avengers are coming off an impressive win against the Nashville Kats where they were able to pour in 73 points. The one positive sign for the Avengers is that they may have found their future QB in the form of Sonny Cumbie, who continues to produce solid stats since being inserted into the starting role. A bad sign however, is the fact that their defense has given up more points than any other team in the AFL. Las Vegas has been a complete trainwreck the last five weeks, losing five straight. What are the chances that Las Vegas comes into Los Angeles and steals a victory to end their five game skid? Slim and None, and Slim just left the building. The experts have the Avengers as 4-point favorites. If I was a gambling man (and I am!!), I'd be all over this game. Don't be shocked to see the Avengers win by double figures. My fantasy players for this game will be will be the Avengers QB Sonny Cumbie and WR Kevin Ingram. For fantasy purposes, stay far far away from any other players in this game.
Los Angeles 65 Las Vegas 50
COLUMBUS AT SAN JOSE
Columbus, I would like to introduce you to the hottest team in the AFL, the San Jose Sabercats! The Cats are clicking, folks, and they are showing no signs of slowing down, heading into the playoffs having won six straight games. There has been a lot of talk lately about who will be the AFL's Rookie of the Year, and I know my vote. San Jose's OS Ben Nelson has been unstoppable since being inserted into the lineup. Nelson has 88 receptions for 1317 yards and 23 touchdowns on the year. Let me remind you, he only started playing in Week 6, and San Jose has been rolling ever since. Columbus has enjoyed a three game win streak mainly because of their stingy defense. This stingy defense will get a tough test this week against QB Mark Grieb, WR James Roe, Nelson and company. This three-headed monster will dominate the game, as the Sabercats end the season on a positive note.
San Jose 60 Columbus 50
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